LIQUIDITY TALK. NOT SO FAST! (AN INCREDIBLY HONEST MARKET)
[Latest Global Dollar Liquidity Measure: +14.4% annual growth rate; latest Endogenous Liquidity Index: +5.9%]

It doesn't matter if you are bullish or bearish: either way, the market is ... incredibly honest. Price discovery has never been so cheap. Need to know about credit spreads in order to forecast corporate profits? Check out the Markit site. Looking for a market-based proxy to the "Great Moderation" of the business cycle? Take a look at the VIX, the V-DAX and other similar indices. I am convinced that success in this market is largely a matter of learning the language of market-based indicators.

Yesterday, just as I was "declaring victory" about my bullish interpretation of the recent bond market rout, surging CDS spreads suddenly sent a clear message: "Not so fast!"