LIQUIDITY ANALYSIS. QATAR, THE EFFECTIVE FED FUNDS RATE & THE GLOBAL DOLLAR LIQUIDITY MEASURE
[Latest Global Dollar Liquidity Measure: +14.8% annual growth rate; latest Endogenous Liquidity Index: -28.7%]

Consider, first, this Reuters piece: "The Qatar Investment Authority (QIA), the energy exporter's $50 billion sovereign wealth fund, said on Monday it was diversifying away from the weakening U.S. dollar by investing more in Asia". Consider, then, the effective Fed funds rate over the second week of August (consistently below the 5.25% target). Get the picture? On the one hand, foreign CBs are accumulating less Treasury securities; on the other hand, the Fed has to withdraw liquidity in order to re-establish its Fed funds target. No wonder our Global Dollar Liquidity measure tanked in August.

Bottom line: [1] funding liquidity is not vanishing: it just has a different shape; [2] the Fed will ease.