Tuesday, October 23, 2007

LIQUIDITY WATCH. SAAS, ANYONE? ("GREAT MODERATION" WATCH)
[Latest Global Dollar Liquidity measure: +14.4% annual growth rate; latest Endogenous Liquidity Index: -21.7%]

Great Moderation Watch; LiquidityHub goes live; liquidity @ Financial Times; Bear Stearns & Citic deal.

[1] Great Moderation Watch: Saas, anyone? In his remarkable speech on "Liquidity, liquidity, liquidity", Bank of Canada Deputy Governor David Longworth singled out "better inventory management" as one of the causes of the "Great Moderation" of the business cycle — a crucial component of market liquidity. The way I see it, the key indicator to gauge the impact of inventory management is the inventory-to-sales ratio. Is there room for even more improvement? From what I read, the answer is inequivocally: "Yes". Thanks to Software as a Service, otherwise known as SaaS, small- and medium-sized businesses will soon have the opportunity to manage their inventories with the help of efficiently-priced software. [Phil Wainewright: "Ketera tames the supply chain’s long tail", ZDNet].

[2] Great Moderation Watch: surging Bric IPOs [Liquidity @ Financial Times]. According to an Ernst & Young report on IPOs, "Seven out of the top 10 IPOs in the third quarter were from emerging markets. The Asia-Pacific - led by China and Hong Kong - had the lion's share in terms of both the number of IPOs completed and the total capital raised. The record numbers of IPOs in the emerging markets show that it is these countries that are driving global economic growth". Even Argentina, with its rather hostile financial climate, has managed to produce a $532 m IPO. [Joanna Chung: "Record level of 'Bric' economy IPOs offsets fall", Financial Times]. See also Morgan Stanley's Stephen Jen's comment on the economic impact of Sovereign Wealth Funds: "SWFs help shift the balance of power in favour of the ‘periphery’ and against the ‘core’ economies in the world".

[3] LiquidityHub goes live! (Liquidity @ Financial Times). LiquidityHub, the bank-sponsored trading platform designed to facilitate access to interest rate swaps and US Treasuries went live yesterday with euro interest-rate swaps. "The battle for trading liquidity has seen the formation of numerous dark liquidity pools that allow transactions to take place on private inter-bank or intra-bank platforms, in competition with exchanges and other traditional marketplaces ... LiquidityHub's launch will help to facilitate deeper pools of liquidity in the market while leveraging the latest capabilities in electronic trading of fixed income products". [Paul J. Davies: "LiquidityHub launches swaps product", Financial Times].

[4] Flows & stocks in reserve analysis [Liquidity @ Financial Times]. Win Thin, currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co., aruges that China is not dumping US assets: "... diversification does not automatically mean outright dollar sales, which is supported by the ongoing purchases of dollar assets by China. China may be diversifying its new inflows, but it is still a net buyer of dollars and dollar paper. Our understanding is that most reserve managers are diversifying their new flows, not their existing stocks of dollar holdings". Good point. Many analysts tend to confuse flows and stocks: more on that soon. [Win Thin: "Claims that China is dumping US assets are spurious", Financial Times].

[5] The Bear Stearns-Citic deal. "The key thing is keeping the money on the table", says Thomas Barnett, the author of the Pentagon's New Map. War and Peace in the XXI century (Putnam, 2003) (blog). Barnett is, IMHO, the world's top globalization expert. "To keep the money on the table": that's what the Bear Stearns-Citic deal is all about. [Sundeep Tucker: "Bear Stearns unveils Citic deal", Financial Times].

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