Friday, November 30, 2007

LIQUIDITY WATCH. HALF EMPTY OR HALF FULL?
. Federal Reserve: "Factors Affecting Reserve Balances", November 28

- Fed's Treasuries holdings: $793.8bn (+$0.9bn)
- Other central banks' Treasuries holdings: $1,225.3bn (+$2.0bn) (*)
- Other central banks' agency securities: $806.2 (+$3.7bn) (*)
- Global Dollar Liquidity Measure: $2,825.3bn (+$6.6bn)

(*) Off-balance-sheet items
agustin_mackinlay@yahoo.com
_________________

[1] Weekly Fed balance sheet watch: half empty or half full? In terms of the Global Dollar Liquidity measure, the month of November is now officially the second weakest of the year. As Peter Garnham puts it in today's FT, "the monthly increase [in Chineses foreign exchange reserves] represented the smallest rise since September 2006". Is the glass half empty, as I suggested last week? Or is it half full, as the Citigroup-ADIA and Fortis-Ping An deals indicate? In other words, is the slowing pace of foreign CBs reserve accumulation indicating growing interest in stocks and acquisitions? Or is it —rather onimously— a sign of flight-to-quality dollar-buying within emerging economies? To look for clues, quantity indicators (such as monetary aggregates) will be pretty useless here. Market-based indicators should provide the answers. See below...

[2] Market-based indicators: encouraging news — but still in a range. Our Endogenous Liquidity Index surged 8.5% over the last three trading sessions, spurred mostly by the shyness of the VIX and by improving junk bond spreads. Even more encouraging, ten year-inflation breakevens have once again fallen sharply (232 bps), suggesting the likelihood of further rate cuts from the Fed. Meanwhile, the platinum-gold ratio is holding well in the midst of the precious metals sell-off. When valued against this market-based "Goldilocks-Stagflation" indicator, a 1525 target for the S&P500 looks possible. Beyond that, caution should prevail: surging Moody's Baa spreads are telling us in no uncertain terms that corporate earnings are increasingly at risk.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Good day !.
You re, I guess , perhaps very interested to know how one can reach 2000 per day of income .
There is no need to invest much at first. You may commense earning with as small sum of money as 20-100 dollars.

AimTrust is what you thought of all the time
The firm incorporates an offshore structure with advanced asset management technologies in production and delivery of pipes for oil and gas.

Its head office is in Panama with affiliates around the world.
Do you want to become a happy investor?
That`s your chance That`s what you wish in the long run!

I feel good, I started to take up income with the help of this company,
and I invite you to do the same. If it gets down to select a correct partner utilizes your money in a right way - that`s it!.
I earn US$2,000 per day, and what I started with was a funny sum of 500 bucks!
It`s easy to join , just click this link http://jofasiqyn.freehostyou.com/ewybysi.html
and go! Let`s take our chance together to feel the smell of real money

Anonymous said...

Good day !.
You may , perhaps very interested to know how one can make real money .
There is no need to invest much at first. You may commense to receive yields with as small sum of money as 20-100 dollars.

AimTrust is what you thought of all the time
The firm incorporates an offshore structure with advanced asset management technologies in production and delivery of pipes for oil and gas.

Its head office is in Panama with structures everywhere: In USA, Canada, Cyprus.
Do you want to become really rich in short time?
That`s your choice That`s what you wish in the long run!

I`m happy and lucky, I started to take up real money with the help of this company,
and I invite you to do the same. It`s all about how to select a proper partner utilizes your savings in a right way - that`s the AimTrust!.
I earn US$2,000 per day, and my first investment was 500 dollars only!
It`s easy to get involved , just click this link http://guqyhucis.easyfreehosting.com/domakaz.html
and lucky you`re! Let`s take our chance together to feel the smell of real money