Thursday, December 13, 2007

LIQUIDITY TALK. WILLEM BUITER & "SCHMORAL HAZARD"
[Latest Global Dollar Liquidity measure: +12.7% annual growth rate; latest Endogenous Liquidity Index: -31.9%]

Bank Credit Analyst & the yield curve; liquidity @ Financial Times

[1] It's the yield curve, stupid! Bank Credit Analyst, the top-notch Canadian consultant, makes a good point about Fed policy: what matters is the yield curve. BCA's starting point is the swap curve, as defined by "the spread between the 5-year swap rate (a proxy for the rate that banks lend at) and the 6-month libor rate (a proxy for bank funding costs)", which "is at its most inverted level in the history of the series". They conclude: "The Fed likely needs to dramatically steepen the swap curve as occurred in the early 1990s and early 2000s, in order to facilitate a healing process". The spread between the ten-year note and the Fed funds (the measure I follow) is inverted since ... june 2006! Clearly, more work needs to be done. [Bank Credit Analyst:"What Can The Fed Do?"]

[2] Liquidity @ Financial Times: good coverage! The FT provides good coverage of the coordinated central bank action to ease the liquidity situation. Prof. Willem Buiter (whose lectures I attended a long time ago) is quoted about moral hazard: "Prof. Buiter said the concern about moral hazard was overplayed: Moral hazard, schmoral hazard". [Chris Giles: "Co-ordinated action attracts praise", Financial Times]

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