Monday, March 3, 2008

LIQUIDITY NEWS. A NEW LOW FOR THE ENDOGENOUS LIQUIDITY INDEX
[Latest Global Dollar Liquidity measure: +11.9% annual growth rate; latest Endogenous Liquidity Index: -48.1%]

[1] Endogenous liquidity: a new low! Surging credit spreads on both CDS and cash bonds, the higher VIX, and plunging stock prices of financial innovators: all these factors are conspiring to send our Endogenous Liquidity Index to yet a new low (-48.1% year-on-year). The most worrying factor, in my mind, continues to be the path of the Moody's Baa spread. At 317 bps, it trades at highs not seen since February 2003. This provides a clear forecast in terms of corporate earnings: down!

[2] Bank Credit Analyst's own ... Goldilocks-Stagflation indicator! Since Friday, the Goldilocks-Stagflation indicator has competition: Bank Credit Analyst, the top-notch Canadian consultants, have launched their own indicator. Unlike our measure, which is market-based, BCA's is a quantity indicator: it results from computing stories that mention "goldilocks", "rising inflation" and "recession". See for yourself.

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