Tuesday, March 4, 2008

[Latest Global Dollar Liquidity measure: +11.9% annual growth rate; latest Endogenous Liquidity Index: -48.5%]

[1] Credit spreads are surging globally. Most of the international CDS indices that I track are posting new highs in terms of spreads. Emerging markets appear to fare a touch better as of this writing. But take a look at Markit's iTraxx series. All of them, without exception, are trading at new highs in terms of spreads: Europe, Europe Crossover, Japan, Asia ex-Japan, Australia, and Japan 80. There is a whiff of panic in the air, as some spreads have surged more than 30% in just one session. Ladies and gentlemen: the credit spread explosion has gone global, no doubt about it.

[2] A Petrodollar tsunami? (Liquidity @ Financial Times). Morgan Stanley's Stephen Jen warns about the upcoming "petrodollar tsunami" that is likely to occur as oil trades at $100/barrel. Here's the key excerpt: "At $100 a barrel, the total proven reserves of the oil exporting countries is about $104,000bn – equivalent to the combined total value of publicly-traded equities and bonds in the world". Jen thinks that the tsunami has two broad implications in terms of financial markets: (a) equities will outperform bonds; (2) emerging market currencies are likely to gain both in terms of the dollar and the euro [Stephen Jen: "Petrodollar tsunami to hit euro and dollar", Financial Times]


Anonymous said...

Believe me, the "total proven reserves" of most of the exporting countries are a fiction, especially in the Gulf. They're still worth a lot, though.


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